The Fed Cannot Cure Inflation by Itself , Wall Street Journal June 28 2022 This is the original version, before WSJ edits. They made it shorter, but I think this version is better.  The Fed cannot cure this inflation alone. Relyi…

This is an essay, prepared for the CATO 39th annual monetary policy conference.  It will appear in a CATO book edited by Jim Dorn. This is a longer and more academic piece underlying " The ghost of Christmas inflation. "…

Whew. The penultimate draft of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level  is now done, and in the hands of the copy-editors at Princeton. There is still time to send me typos, thinkos, wrong equations, excessive repetition and more!

Having just plugged " portfolios for long-term investors " again, I really should opine on its message about the recent stock market decline. If you didn't see this coming and get out ahead of time, or if it was p…

An email correspondent sent the above graph. The title is [Federal Reserve] Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury. The Treasury pays the Fed interest on the Fed's asset holdings.…

In working on a revision to fiscal theory of the price level chapter 5 on sticky price models, and a revision of " Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates" I came up with this fun impulse-response function. I…

Source here .  Inflation seems to be waning. The conventional change from a year ago:  The month to month changes now suddenly more popular on the way down than it was on the way up:  I generally don't make predictions -- u…

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is now available from Princeton University Press . The official release date is Jan 17, but both hard cover and ebook are available sooner from Princeton. And for a limited time, 30% off! The…

Our great experiment in monetary economics continues.  The news of the moment is that inflation might--might--be peaking. I just present the CPI to make the point, but there seems to be a lot of news suggesting that inflation is…

Policy Tensor on the consequences of a Russian nuke ( HT Marginal Revolution ) was very interesting:  Consider the least escalatory option, that of a “demonstration detonation”: Russian forces air-burst (to avoid the nuclear fal…

Now that 30 days have passed, I can post the full text of "Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation" in the Wall Street Journal   August 25. A previous post has a summary with pretty pictures.  *** A grand econ…

Larry Summers wrote an interesting  oped at the Washington Post.  Mostly, he still is of the adaptive-expectations ISLM view that interest rates must exceed current inflation before inflation will decline. ( The issue here  (blog…