"Portfolios for long-term investors" is published, Review of Finance   26(1), 1-42. (2022). This  standard link works if you have institutional or individual access. I am not allowed to post a free access link here, bu…

The book isn't out yet, but I can't help myself... A revised draft of Chapter 5, fiscal theory in sticky price models is up on my website here . Giving talks over the last year and writing some subsequent essays, I see cl…

In working on a revision to fiscal theory of the price level chapter 5 on sticky price models, and a revision of " Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates" I came up with this fun impulse-response function. I…

Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates  is a new paper. It's an essay, really, expanding on a lunch talk I was privileged to give at the Minneapolis Fed "Foundations of Monetary Policy" conference  in hon…

We often summarize that the fiscal theory is a theory of the price level: The price level adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of surpluses. That characterization seems to leave it to a secon…

This beautiful graph comes from calculatedriskblog.com . (Courtesy Andy Atkeson who used it in a nice discussion of a great paper by Ivan Werning at the Minneapolis Fed Foundations of Monetary Policy conference .)  The central …

Fiscal Histories  is a new paper, a second try at an essay on fiscal theory for the Journal of Economic Perspectives.  The basic concept is to explain the fiscal theory of the price level with no equations by applying it, by see…

So if the Fed raises interest rates, how much and how soon will that help inflation? For another project , I went back to Valerie Ramey's classic review . Here is her replication and update of two classic estimates:  Two est…