The book isn't out yet, but I can't help myself... A revised draft of Chapter 5, fiscal theory in sticky price models is up on my website here . Giving talks over the last year and writing some subsequent essays, I see cl…

An email correspondent sent the above graph. The title is [Federal Reserve] Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury. The Treasury pays the Fed interest on the Fed's asset holdings.…

In working on a revision to fiscal theory of the price level chapter 5 on sticky price models, and a revision of " Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates" I came up with this fun impulse-response function. I…

Source here .  Inflation seems to be waning. The conventional change from a year ago:  The month to month changes now suddenly more popular on the way down than it was on the way up:  I generally don't make predictions -- u…

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is now available from Princeton University Press . The official release date is Jan 17, but both hard cover and ebook are available sooner from Princeton. And for a limited time, 30% off! The…

Our great experiment in monetary economics continues.  The news of the moment is that inflation might--might--be peaking. I just present the CPI to make the point, but there seems to be a lot of news suggesting that inflation is…

Now that 30 days have passed, I can post the full text of "Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation" in the Wall Street Journal   August 25. A previous post has a summary with pretty pictures.  *** A grand econ…

Larry Summers wrote an interesting  oped at the Washington Post.  Mostly, he still is of the adaptive-expectations ISLM view that interest rates must exceed current inflation before inflation will decline. ( The issue here  (blog…

Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates  is a new paper. It's an essay, really, expanding on a lunch talk I was privileged to give at the Minneapolis Fed "Foundations of Monetary Policy" conference  in hon…

Interest rate neutrality is easy to state in equations but hard to digest intuitively.  The equation says that interest rate = real rate plus expected inflation, \[i_t = r + E_t\pi_{t+1.}\]In one direction this is easy: If people…

Fiscal Histories  is a new paper, a second try at an essay on fiscal theory for the Journal of Economic Perspectives.  The basic concept is to explain the fiscal theory of the price level with no equations by applying it, by see…

"Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation" is a new oped in the  Wall Street Journal   August 25. (Full version will be posted here Sept 25). It's a distillation of two recent essays, Expectations and the Ne…

A few Stanford colleagues got together to talk about inflation, and that gave me an incentive to summarize recent writings as compactly as possible. Here goes, and thanks to everyone for a great discussion.  The big question Here…