Guy Adams in the Daily Mail has an intriguing story of what's going on in UK bond markets.  It's intriguing because it's so utterly familiar. And it reveals that all the masses of regulation and armies of regulators a…

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, passes along the above gorgeous graph. Fed forecasts of interest rates behave similarly. So does the "market forecast" embedded in the yield curve, which usua…

Having just plugged " portfolios for long-term investors " again, I really should opine on its message about the recent stock market decline. If you didn't see this coming and get out ahead of time, or if it was p…

"Portfolios for long-term investors" is published, Review of Finance   26(1), 1-42. (2022). This  standard link works if you have institutional or individual access. I am not allowed to post a free access link here, bu…

In previous blog posts here and here , I criticized UK financial regulators for missing simple leverage and margin requirements in UK pension funds. To be clear, I don't criticize the people. The point is, if after 10 years …

Policy Tensor on the consequences of a Russian nuke ( HT Marginal Revolution ) was very interesting:  Consider the least escalatory option, that of a “demonstration detonation”: Russian forces air-burst (to avoid the nuclear fal…

Update to my previous post on the UK treasury imbrogli o:  The Bank of England explains,  saying about as much as I did. Pension funds levered up, lost money when treasury prices fell, needed to post collateral, and then started …

(At National Review ) What This Year’s Nobel Economists Can Teach Us about Financial Crises This week, economists are celebrating the Nobel Prize given to Ben Bernanke, Doug Diamond and Phil Dybvig for their work on banking. Ber…

The   Speech  by the ECB's Isabel Schnabel, advertised on the official ECB twitter stream  caused a characteristically grumpy outburst from me . Savor the ECB's tweet in all of its glory:  We will not tolerate changes in…

Doug Irwin of Dartmouth gave a really informative talk at the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, based on his paper The Trade Reform Wave 1985-1995 , AER May 2022.  Embed (hopefully) below, or go to the link here .     Doug op…